The Future Looks Bright!

Keep up with the ever-evolving media landscape this holiday season with DirectAvenue’s Top 5 Predictions for Holiday Shopping! Covering what is identified as the key shopping period from November 1st to December 31st, we provide you with concise updates on emerging media trends and statistics to help you stay informed.

November 6, 2024

1. Online shopping is expected to increase 8-9% YoY in 2024– reaching around $296B in sales. The National Retail Federation forecasts that holiday spending in 2024 will increase by 2.5% to 3.5% compared to the previous year, totaling approximately $985 billion. Adobe anticipates that online sales will hit a record $241 billion during the 2024 Holiday Season, marking an 8.4% rise from 2023. Mobile shopping is also expected to reach new heights in 2024, with spending projected to reach $128 billion, reflecting a 12.8% year-over-year growth.
2. Black Friday and Cyber Monday retail sales are forecast to rise 5% in the U.S– According to management consulting firm, Bain, holiday spending is set to reach a record $75 billion. A survey from the consultancy revealed that 67% of consumers in countries like the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Australia plan to purchase half of their items online this holiday season. In the U.S., 55% anticipate starting their shopping next month. Additionally, an Experian poll found that nearly half (47%) will visit physical stores during the season, with boomers leading in this category.
3. Over half of the 2024 holiday season spend is expected to be driven by electronics– to a 8.5% YoY increase to $55.1B, followed by apparel (5.8% year-over-year increase), reaching $43.9 billion, while spending on furniture and bedding is projected to grow 4.2% year-over-year, totaling $28.4 billion. Spending across retail categories is expected to stay relatively stable in 2024, with an average of $1,043 (up from $1,020 in 2023). While spending on gifts is expected to remain mostly unchanged (-3% YoY), non-gift purchases are forecasted to rise by 9%. Overall, holiday budgets in 2024 are anticipated to be 32% higher than in 2023.
4. 50% of Gen Z consumers now use Gen AI channels to help with their ecommerce purchases– This highlights a notable shift, with younger shoppers increasingly relying on AI for product discovery, price comparisons, and gathering relevant information. Half of Gen Z shoppers now use generative AI tools during the purchase consideration phase, compared to just 29% of Baby Boomers, underscoring Gen Z’s leading role in embracing AI for shopping. At the point of purchase, debit cards remain the most popular payment method, with 65% planning to use them. Gen Z also favors mobile apps and allows celebrity and influencer endorsements to influence 40% of their holiday shopping decisions.
5. But wait! Many consumers are taking a more considerate approach to spending– Feeling heightened financial pressure, these shoppers are being more selective with their purchases. For CMOs, the key opportunity will be finding ways to appeal to both more budget-conscious consumers and those with a bit more flexibility, all while continuing to drive growth in the market overall!